How could the world meet future energy demand while reducing net carbon emissions to zero? Earlier scenarios Shell Scenarios since the 1970s have helped us understand how the world and its energy system could evolve in decades to come. The Shell Scenarios team is multi-disciplinary with expertise in economics, political analysis, energy analysis, socio-cultural change, climate, scenario building and communications. Shell has been a pioneer in developing scenarios to explore the future and deepen its strategic thinking for almost 50 years. Previously, he worked for Procter & Gamble in various supply chain roles. This month, I am speaking at the World Cities Summit in Singapore, where experts will share ideas on urban development. He has also been seconded to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The Global Energy Resource database is our tool for exploring the world’s fossil and renewable energy resources. The team looks at the uncertainties around energy transitions and climate change, including country, region and sector perspectives – but we also want to understand key societal trends around the world. The social, economic and political elements are, of course, interdependent. They dared to consider “what if,” for possible futures that Shell managers didn’t want to think about. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. All three had a time horizon up to 2020. Mallika also helps shape Shell’s policy and advocacy on the energy transition to support the company’s decarbonisation strategy. Cho has worked on scenario projects with international organisations, governments, universities and businesses across the world. Explore the data and timeline of the global energy transition outlined by our Sky scenario. He joined the Shell Scenarios team in 1994, and has since led a wide range of country and focused scenario projects, and also actively helped develop sets of Shell scenarios up to the present. INTRODUCTION There is a growing body of literature that tries to quantify the physical and economic impacts of future climate change (EC, 2014; EPA, 2015). Shell Scenarios since the 1970s have helped us understand how the world and its energy system could evolve in decades to come. Before joining the Shell Scenarios team, he held various upstream roles for Shell in the Netherlands, Brunei and Iraq, and worked in internal audit and on global capital project improvement. Shell has a long historyof using scenario analysis to test and direct company strategy. She has held senior positions in the UK government, including at the Cabinet Office as Head of Policy Analysis for the 2009 G20 London Summit. Steven began his career as an economist at the International Monetary Fund and holds a DPhil in economics from the University of Oxford and a degree in economics and finance from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Georgios is a Senior Energy Analyst in strategy and planning for Shell Scenarios. The ‘Flight of the Flamingo’ was obviously the preferable scenario. But there are three crucial elements, consisting of several bricks that are needed to accomplish that flight: economic, political and social element. Martin joined Shell in 2003 and has been a member of the Shell Scenarios team since 2004. Peter is Shell’s Chief Energy Advisor. Digital technologies are changing the way we live, work and think – and in the Shell Scenarios team we’ve explored how they could affect the world in the years ahead. Building on our Sky scenario,1 the Shell Scenarios team has outlined a possible pathway for the US to achieve a net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions2 energy system by 2050. He has held a wide range of positions in downstream-upstream process engineering and R&D management, and in identifying and developing commercial and exploration investment opportunities in the Middle East, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Why wealth, health and security could shape the next decade. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. shell scenarios sowed seeds for strategic success 1960 s 1972/3 2013+ the team had shared these early scenarios with shell’s management, daring them to think the unthinkable: what if the world faced an oil crisis? Cho advises on political trends and political risk. This, as well as other critical questions about a technically possible pathway to get to net-zero emissions are explored in the Sky scenario. scenarios were rolled out at GE in 1971 and Wack with his team produced their first scenarios at Shell a year later.3 Wilson assigned expert judgment probabilities to the first GE scenarios, but Wack did not. He has worked in refinery technology, oil trading and shipping for Shell. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Scenarios for a new world Shell Scenarios. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Financial reports and articles of association Shell International Finance B.V. Fourth quarter 2020 results – February 4, 2021, 4 tips to excel in a Shell face-to-face interview, 7 tips to prepare Students & Graduates for an online video Interview, 10 employees share their first week at Shell, 9 ways to help you find the right career path, Find a Job in the Shell Graduate Programme, Explore ‘Moving Forward’, in 3-D and augmented reality. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. People will seek all of these to some extent, but what societies choose to prioritise may differ. We have been developing possible visions of the future since the 1970s, helping generations of Shell leaders explore ways forward and make better decisions. She studied business economics and history at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands and earned her master’s degree in international relations at King’s College London. Because the world has not experienced such high greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and temperatures in recent history, these assessments rely on modeling the human … It calls for fundamental changes to the US energy system at a pace of change that will be highly challenging. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this website that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. Before joining the Shell Scenarios team, Peter held various other positions at the Shell Asset Management Company, Saudi Aramco, the Institute of International Finance, the Ministry of Finance in the Netherlands and the European Commission in Brussels. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this website, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. With his colleagues and successors at Shell’s Group Planning department, he designed and refined this important business tool, in effect serving as the chief analyst of Shell’s version of Her Majesty’s Secret Service. She joined Shell’s Scenarios in 2013, after eight years in various functions at the company's Corporate Affairs departments. Our Scenarios team has expertise in a wide range of fields including economics, politics, energy analysis, climate policy, socio-cultural change and competitive intelligence. The Shell Scenarios team brings together experts from an array of disciplines to understand versions of the future. Jeremy has held a number of senior executive positions, including membership of the leadership team of Shell’s commercial technology company and chief executive of Shell Hydrogen. This website contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. We base them on plausible assumptions and quantifications, and they are designed to stretch management to consider even events that may only be remotely possible. While we seek to enhance our operations’ average energy intensity through both the development of new projects and divestments, we have no immediate plans to move to a net-zero emissions portfolio over our investment horizon of 10-20 years. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Peter’s education started on a farm in the north of England and he later earned an MSci in physics from Durham University, UK, and an MBA from the Institute of Management Development, Switzerland. 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He is an Associate Fellow at the University of Oxford’s Said Business School, where he is a core faculty member of the Oxford Scenarios Programme. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this website refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Georgios joined Shell in 2013. He joined Shell in 1997 and has held various positions in petroleum engineering and commercial and strategy functions in the Netherlands, Syria, Saudi Arabia, France and the USA. Scenario planning alerted Shell’s managing … The new report expands on a 2014 essay by Jeremy Bentham, vice president global business environment for Shell and the head of the company’s scenarios team. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330. Shell Scenarios ask “what if?” questions encouraging leaders to consider events that may only be remote possibilities, and stretch their thinking. Successive sets of scenarios were released in 1992, 1995 and 1998. These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this website and should be considered by the reader. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest. David posts regularly on his energy and climate change blog and contributes to The Energy Collective, a US-based blog. 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